The Carpathian Mountains, a rugged arc stretching across Central and Eastern Europe, recently echoed with armored vehicles and artillery fire. French guns set the rhythm as troops crossed frozen ground during a winter exercise. The display was meant to signal strength. Yet many officers focused on what was missing. The United States, long the backbone of Europe’s security, was largely absent. In October, the Pentagon confirmed that Washington reduced its rotational force in Romania from about 1,700 troops to roughly 1,000. Similar reductions are planned in Bulgaria, Hungary, and Slovakia. U.S. officials say the move reflects a strategic shift toward the Indo-Pacific, where Washington seeks to deter China and reinforce alliances in Asia. European leaders accept the logic but worry about the consequences if military drills turn into a real conflict. NATO’s Article 5 still pledges collective defense, treating an attack on one member as an attack on all. Confidence in that promise, however, has weakened. “The Europeans no longer perceive American security guarantees as guarantees,” said Iulia Joja, director of the Black Sea Program at the Middle East Institute. Governments across Europe are increasingly planning for scenarios in which they must defend their borders with fewer U.S. forces nearby.
The challenge is logistical as much as political. During a late November drill at Cincu, Romania, French and Romanian commanders measured how long it took to move forces across Europe. Deploying a single French brigade required 10 days, five aircraft, 11 trains, and 15 road convoys. Border checks, permits for oversized cargo, driver-hour limits, and differing national procedures slowed the process. In peacetime, such delays are manageable. In war, they could prove dangerous.
Security concerns remain high along NATO’s eastern flank. Drone intrusions, sabotage, and frequent missile tests have kept the region on alert. Romanian officials reported debris from Russian drones landing inside Romania during attacks on Ukrainian ports along the Danube in 2023 and 2024. German intelligence agencies warn that Russia could be capable of attacking a NATO member within four years. European governments are now rebuilding military systems they once scaled back. France is preparing to revive a form of voluntary national service nearly 30 years after ending conscription. Other countries are expanding draft plans or offering stronger incentives to retain troops. But experts say manpower alone is not enough. Artillery stockpiles must grow, transportation networks must operate under stress, and readiness must extend beyond election cycles.
France has expanded joint production and maintenance of artillery shells and armored vehicles at Romanian factories. NATO allies are also increasing training to ensure weapons, software, and communications systems work smoothly together.
For decades, Europe relied heavily on U.S. troops, aircraft, and air defenses. As American forces step back, that dependence is harder to sustain. Decisions now being made across the continent will determine whether Europe can stand more firmly on its own.
Sean Jung R&D Division Director teen/1767664168/1613367750
1. Why did the United States reduce troop levels in Eastern Europe despite ongoing security concerns across NATO’s eastern flank region?
2. How has reduced American troop presence changed European governments’ confidence in NATO’s collective defense commitments and long-term security planning?
3. How are European governments adjusting military planning as confidence in long-standing American security guarantees continues to weaken?
4. What logistical challenges make moving European forces across borders slow and potentially dangerous during real wartime situations?
1. Do you feel confident if your country relies less on U.S. military protection during growing security tensions in Europe today?
2. Do you worry that slow troop movements and logistics problems could become dangerous during a real military conflict?
3. Do you think citizens should be more involved in discussions about defense, conscription, and national security planning?
4. Would you support your government increasing defense spending even if it meant higher taxes or fewer funds for social programs?
The Carpathian Mountains, a rugged arc stretching across Central and Eastern Europe, recently echoed with armored vehicles and artillery fire. French guns set the rhythm as troops crossed frozen ground during a winter exercise. The display was meant to signal strength. Yet many officers focused on what was missing. The United States, long the backbone of Europe’s security, was largely absent.
