Iran Protests Subside Under Force, but Public Anger Remains   

• Iran is experiencing one of its most serious periods of unrest in recent years, as nationwide protests challenge the country’s theocratic leadership and draw sustained international attention. Demonstrations have eased in recent days, but the decline appears driven by heavy security measures rather than any resolution of public anger. Iranian officials claim order has been restored, yet the political and economic pressures that fueled the unrest remain largely unchanged. The latest wave of protests began on Dec. 28, 2025, after the rial fell to a historic low against the U.S. dollar. Inflation hovered near 40%, cutting off many households’ access to basic goods. Prices for eggs, cooking oil, rice, and meat rose sharply, while cuts to subsidies and changes to currency support systems added further strain. Years of international sanctions had already weakened the economy, and Iran’s military involvement in regional conflicts last year further eroded public confidence. What began as frustration over rising living costs soon spiraled into broader political dissent. Chants criticizing the government spread from local markets to university campuses. Students, shopkeepers, and industrial workers marched side by side. Minority regions also played a role, particularly Kurdish areas, where protests persisted. The unrest spread nationwide. Demonstrations were reported in all 31 provinces and at least 186 cities. Activity peaked in early January before declining sharply. The drop followed harsher crackdowns, including mass arrests and increased patrols. Even while visible protests declined in Iran, demonstrations by the Iranian diaspora abroad continued, keeping global attention on events at home. Authorities responded swiftly and forcefully. A nationwide internet blackout limited access to outside communication, while phone networks faltered, and some flights were canceled. News outlets updated sporadically. State media labeled the protests as terrorist acts, and officials spoke of accelerated trials and severe punishments, signaling little tolerance for dissent. The human toll has been significant. One count cited at least 2,637 deaths, while another listed 2,615 based on an earlier tally. At least 13 minors were reportedly killed, and more than 18,000 arrests have been documented. Independent verification remains difficult due to communication restrictions and limited official disclosures. International concern intensified after reports that some detainees could face execution, prompting warnings from the United States and new sanctions on senior Iranian officials. Conflicting statements from Iranian authorities added uncertainty, though some sentences were reportedly reduced following outside pressure. Overall, the developments suggest that Washington is relying on diplomatic pressure and deterrence rather than direct intervention. While protest activity has faded from public view, repression, not reconciliation, appears to explain the quiet. Sean Jung R&D Division Director teen/1769997713/1613367592